Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395136

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-17 FINAL

Nuclear TigeRES

WINNER

2 : 1

SERIES COMPLETE

K27

CHALLENGER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✓ CORRECT CALL

Nuclear TigeRES 59% K27 41%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean +0.210

PHANTOM +0.134

PHANTOM confidence -0.054

SHADOW BET 6.1u @ 1.723 → +4.4u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 Nuclear TigeRES 53%

✓

PHANTOM v2 Nuclear TigeRES 64%

✓

TITAN v2 Nuclear TigeRES 59%

✓

NEXUS v2 Nuclear TigeRES 55%

✓

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

59%

Nuclear TigeRES

MODEL ODDS

0.59

BET ODDS

1.723

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

BO3 BAN/PICK SIM

dust2 32% Nuclear TigeRES

anubis 68% Nuclear TigeRES

ancient 42% Nuclear TigeRES

nuke 65% Nuclear TigeRES

mirage 47% Nuclear TigeRES

inferno 70% WR (28/40)

vertigo 0% WR (0/1)

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

mirage 9 – 13 K27 took the map.

nuke 13 – 9 Nuclear TigeRES took the map.

anubis 13 – 9 Nuclear TigeRES took the map.

Side

Nuclear TigeRES WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP flouzer ENTRY	58	44	14	47%	83.9	71.8%	1.25	8.1
ayuki	31	26	6	52%	65.7	75.6%	1.12	—
m1QUSE RIFLER	51	50	12	45%	83.0	73.2%	1.12	8.3
senka ENTRY	48	53	19	50%	83.5	69.0%	1.05	7.9
z1k4 AWP	41	50	8	34%	56.4	71.8%	0.90	8.6
seberya	12	19	3	42%	39.7	61.5%	0.66	—

K27

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP xeedo RIFLER	63	48	15	48%	96.4	76.1%	1.35	8.5
kashl1d AWP	44	41	11	32%	64.3	77.5%	1.08	8.5
fame	48	48	13	67%	69.1	70.4%	1.04	—
qw1nk1 RIFLER	42	51	18	52%	68.5	64.8%	0.91	8.4
X5G7V ENTRY	38	50	12	42%	56.9	59.2%	0.78	7.9

Nuclear TigeRES

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
flouzer	23	20	5	43%	81.7	69.2%	1.20	8.1
m1QUSE	18	20	4	28%	69.5	76.9%	1.05	8.3
senka	18	21	7	39%	78.6	73.1%	1.04	7.9
z1k4	13	21	6	38%	38.7	73.1%	0.74	8.6
seberya	12	19	3	42%	39.7	61.5%	0.66	—

K27 WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
xeedo	27	15	8	37%	100.7	84.6%	1.62	8.5
fame	24	17	5	67%	79.0	88.5%	1.43	—
kashl1d	19	16	5	32%	68.0	88.5%	1.25	8.5
X5G7V	21	16	3	38%	64.4	73.1%	1.18	7.9
qw1nk1	11	21	10	36%	59.4	65.4%	0.70	8.4

Nuclear TigeRES WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
m1QUSE	19	16	3	79%	102.4	69.6%	1.25	8.3
flouzer	16	12	5	50%	83.9	73.9%	1.21	8.1
ayuki	18	15	3	39%	63.0	65.2%	1.08	—
senka	14	15	4	57%	73.2	60.9%	0.94	7.9
z1k4	12	15	1	50%	53.9	69.6%	0.85	8.6

K27

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
kashl1d	14	11	3	43%	73.4	73.9%	1.12	8.5
qw1nk1	17	16	3	47%	73.7	65.2%	1.05	8.4
xeedo	17	19	3	47%	87.7	60.9%	1.00	8.5
fame	12	15	4	67%	61.5	65.2%	0.86	—
X5G7V	9	17	4	44%	48.6	52.2%	0.56	7.9

Nuclear TigeRES WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
flouzer	19	12	4	47%	86.6	72.7%	1.34	8.1
ayuki	13	11	3	69%	68.5	86.4%	1.17	—
senka	16	17	8	56%	100.1	72.7%	1.17	7.9
z1k4	16	14	1	19%	79.9	72.7%	1.14	8.6
m1QUSE	14	14	5	21%	78.7	72.7%	1.08	8.3

K27

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
xeedo	19	14	4	63%	100.6	81.8%	1.41	8.5
qw1nk1	14	14	5	71%	73.8	63.6%	1.00	8.4
kashl1d	11	14	3	18%	50.5	68.2%	0.83	8.5
fame	12	16	4	67%	65.4	54.6%	0.77	—
X5G7V	8	17	5	50%	56.9	50.0%	0.53	7.9

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = Nuclear TigeRES · Magenta = K27. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

xeedo flouzer ayuki m1QUSE kashl1d senka fame qw1nk1 z1k4 X5G7V seberya