K27 vs 100 Thieves — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395134

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-16 FINAL

K27

WINNER

2 : 0

SERIES COMPLETE

100 Thieves

CHALLENGER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✓ CORRECT CALL

K27 86% 100 Thieves 14%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean +0.857

PHANTOM +0.411

PHANTOM confidence +0.185

SHADOW BET 11.0u @ 2.500 → +16.4u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 K27 83%

✓

PHANTOM v2 K27 86%

✓

NEXUS v2 K27 60%

✓

TITAN v2 K27 86%

✓

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

86%

K27

MODEL ODDS

0.86

BET ODDS

2.500

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

BO3 BAN/PICK SIM

nuke 29% K27

overpass 60% K27

ancient 60% K27

dust2 58% K27

mirage 55% K27

anubis 45% K27

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

ancient 16 – 13 K27 took the map.

dust2 13 – 9 K27 took the map.

Side

K27 WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP kashl1d AWP	40	25	15	38%	88.0	74.5%	1.33	8.5
qw1nk1 RIFLER	42	34	16	71%	87.8	68.6%	1.23	8.4
xeedo RIFLER	35	31	18	57%	77.9	80.4%	1.20	8.5
fame	36	35	11	56%	83.8	64.7%	1.07	—
X5G7V ENTRY	33	38	19	45%	83.9	68.6%	1.03	7.9
▸ Observers (1)
Referee \| Diogo	— observer —

100 Thieves

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP dev1ce	36	33	3	42%	80.6	66.7%	1.08	—
sirah RIFLER	37	35	11	51%	85.8	58.8%	1.05	8.1
poiii RIFLER	30	39	14	60%	79.9	72.6%	0.98	8.1
rain ENTRY	28	37	14	64%	72.7	64.7%	0.88	7.7
Ag1l	28	38	14	43%	67.5	60.8%	0.83	—

K27 WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
qw1nk1	27	21	9	67%	92.3	69.0%	1.31	8.4
X5G7V	20	22	10	55%	90.4	75.9%	1.13	7.9
kashl1d	17	15	11	35%	73.1	69.0%	1.07	8.5
fame	19	17	6	58%	79.7	62.1%	1.04	—
xeedo	20	21	7	55%	73.8	69.0%	1.04	8.5

100 Thieves

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
dev1ce	24	17	2	42%	92.4	75.9%	1.32	—
sirah	23	20	7	61%	94.0	65.5%	1.18	8.1
rain	19	20	6	47%	77.8	69.0%	1.03	7.7
Ag1l	17	22	10	53%	67.1	58.6%	0.84	—
poiii	10	21	11	40%	59.7	69.0%	0.71	8.1

K27 WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
kashl1d	23	10	4	39%	107.5	81.8%	1.68	8.5
xeedo	15	10	11	60%	83.4	95.5%	1.42	8.5
qw1nk1	15	13	7	80%	81.9	68.2%	1.13	8.4
fame	17	18	5	53%	89.3	68.2%	1.10	—
X5G7V	13	16	9	31%	75.4	59.1%	0.90	7.9
▸ Observers (1)
Referee \| Diogo	— observer —

100 Thieves

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
poiii	20	18	3	70%	106.5	77.3%	1.33	8.1
sirah	14	15	4	36%	75.0	50.0%	0.87	8.1
Ag1l	11	16	4	27%	68.1	63.6%	0.81	—
dev1ce	12	16	1	42%	64.9	54.6%	0.76	—
rain	9	17	8	100%	66.0	59.1%	0.68	7.7

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = K27 · Magenta = 100 Thieves. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

kashl1d qw1nk1 xeedo dev1ce fame sirah X5G7V poiii rain Ag1l