100 Thieves vs Betclic — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395129

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-15 FINAL

100 Thieves

WINNER

2 : 0

SERIES COMPLETE

Betclic

CHALLENGER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✓ CORRECT CALL

100 Thieves 81% Betclic 19%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean +0.810

PHANTOM +0.231

PHANTOM confidence +0.064

SHADOW BET 6.4u @ 1.308 → +2.0u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 100 Thieves 76%

✓

PHANTOM v2 100 Thieves 82%

✓

TITAN v2 100 Thieves 81%

✓

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

81%

100 Thieves

MODEL ODDS

0.81

BET ODDS

1.308

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

BO3 BAN/PICK SIM

inferno 100% 100 Thieves

dust2 63% 100 Thieves

overpass 62% 100 Thieves

anubis 38% 100 Thieves

ancient 58% 100 Thieves

vertigo 45% 100 Thieves

nuke 53% 100 Thieves

mirage 52% 100 Thieves

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

nuke 16 – 12 100 Thieves took the map.

dust2 13 – 8 100 Thieves took the map.

Side

100 Thieves WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP dev1ce	41	21	7	32%	88.5	81.6%	1.45	—
sirah RIFLER	41	29	9	59%	92.2	79.6%	1.36	8.1
poiii RIFLER	43	30	10	58%	94.4	71.4%	1.34	8.1
rain ENTRY	30	35	16	80%	73.9	75.5%	1.03	7.7
Ag1l	25	32	8	48%	59.5	69.4%	0.87	—

Betclic

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP hades	33	34	10	27%	72.2	63.3%	0.99	—
Demho	30	31	8	53%	71.2	65.3%	0.97	—
Prism	27	35	13	52%	67.0	65.3%	0.88	—
eskyy	26	36	12	65%	62.3	65.3%	0.83	—
Dr3nquu	28	42	11	75%	73.4	57.1%	0.77	—

100 Thieves WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
dev1ce	25	16	4	16%	94.0	71.4%	1.37	—
sirah	21	17	7	62%	90.4	78.6%	1.27	8.1
poiii	20	17	4	45%	72.1	57.1%	1.02	8.1
rain	16	22	12	81%	76.8	67.9%	0.92	7.7
Ag1l	15	19	3	47%	54.8	64.3%	0.82	—

Betclic

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
hades	22	17	5	23%	75.4	64.3%	1.15	—
Demho	15	16	6	47%	69.5	67.9%	0.96	—
Prism	16	16	7	56%	72.5	60.7%	0.95	—
Dr3nquu	19	25	7	79%	84.9	60.7%	0.91	—
eskyy	17	22	5	82%	72.7	64.3%	0.89	—

100 Thieves WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
poiii	23	13	6	70%	124.1	90.5%	1.76	8.1
dev1ce	16	5	3	56%	81.1	95.2%	1.56	—
sirah	20	12	2	55%	94.6	81.0%	1.48	8.1
rain	14	13	4	79%	70.0	85.7%	1.18	7.7
Ag1l	10	13	5	50%	65.8	76.2%	0.93	—

Betclic

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Demho	15	15	2	60%	73.4	61.9%	0.99	—
hades	11	17	5	36%	68.1	61.9%	0.78	—
Prism	11	19	6	45%	59.7	71.4%	0.77	—
eskyy	9	14	7	33%	48.5	66.7%	0.75	—
Dr3nquu	9	17	4	67%	58.0	52.4%	0.59	—

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = 100 Thieves · Magenta = Betclic. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

dev1ce sirah poiii rain hades Demho Prism Ag1l eskyy Dr3nquu