K27 vs Walczaki — CounterQuant

MATCHES / #2395124

HLTV

T3 · BO3 CS2 · 2026-06-14 FINAL

K27

WINNER

2 : 0

SERIES COMPLETE

Walczaki

CHALLENGER

/// CQ-GESUS-TITAN v2 · PRIMARY

Prediction breakdown

✓ CORRECT CALL

K27 66% Walczaki 34%

WHY — TOP FEATURE DRIVERS (SHAP)

Ensemble mean +0.408

PHANTOM +0.126

PHANTOM confidence -0.058

SHADOW BET 7.8u @ 1.577 → +4.5u half-Kelly sizing · paper only

ALL MODEL PREDICTIONS

ORACLE v2 K27 76%

✓

PHANTOM v2 K27 64%

✓

TITAN v2 K27 66%

✓

NEXUS v2 K27 73%

✓

OUTCOME PROBABILITY

66%

K27

MODEL ODDS

0.66

BET ODDS

1.577

/// MIRAGE v6 PER-MAP ENGINE

Veto simulation & map probabilities

BO3 BAN/PICK SIM

overpass 100% K27

dust2 68% K27

anubis 31% K27

nuke 28% K27

mirage 41% K27

ancient 57% K27

Each side bans its worst maps, picks its best — simulated 10,000×.

PLAYED SERIES — MAP RESULTS

anubis 13 – 6 K27 took the map.

dust2 13 – 6 K27 took the map.

Side

K27 WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP kashl1d AWP	29	15	8	17%	83.0	79.0%	1.37	8.5
xeedo RIFLER	26	23	16	62%	89.8	79.0%	1.24	8.5
X5G7V ENTRY	27	25	11	33%	78.2	76.3%	1.16	7.9
qw1nk1 RIFLER	27	20	6	59%	76.9	68.4%	1.16	8.4
fame	30	24	3	67%	78.3	63.2%	1.13	—

Walczaki

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
MVP olimp RIFLER	26	29	5	50%	91.0	63.2%	1.01	7.8
SaMey AWP	25	26	7	56%	72.1	60.5%	0.96	8.2
moonwalk RIFLER	21	26	6	76%	72.6	55.3%	0.83	7.6
sk1tt	18	29	4	61%	65.6	52.6%	0.67	—
bajmi RIFLER	12	28	7	58%	43.2	47.4%	0.44	7.9

K27 WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
xeedo	15	11	10	73%	109.4	84.2%	1.45	8.5
kashl1d	15	6	2	13%	70.0	79.0%	1.39	8.5
X5G7V	15	14	4	53%	88.8	79.0%	1.23	7.9
qw1nk1	14	10	4	64%	79.3	68.4%	1.19	8.4
fame	12	11	1	67%	62.3	57.9%	0.93	—

Walczaki

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
moonwalk	13	13	1	77%	79.2	57.9%	0.97	7.6
olimp	10	13	4	60%	80.0	68.4%	0.93	7.8
SaMey	12	14	2	58%	71.2	57.9%	0.88	8.2
sk1tt	9	14	3	56%	65.2	63.2%	0.76	—
bajmi	7	16	3	57%	44.4	42.1%	0.40	7.9

K27 WIN

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
kashl1d	14	9	6	21%	96.0	79.0%	1.36	8.5
fame	18	13	2	67%	94.2	68.4%	1.33	—
qw1nk1	13	10	2	54%	74.5	68.4%	1.12	8.4
X5G7V	12	11	7	8%	67.6	73.7%	1.09	7.9
xeedo	11	12	6	45%	70.2	73.7%	1.02	8.5

Walczaki

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
olimp	16	16	1	44%	102.1	57.9%	1.10	7.8
SaMey	13	12	5	54%	72.9	63.2%	1.04	8.2
moonwalk	8	13	5	75%	66.0	52.6%	0.68	7.6
sk1tt	9	15	1	67%	66.1	42.1%	0.57	—
bajmi	5	12	4	60%	42.1	52.6%	0.49	7.9

/// SPECTER v1 · AUC 0.9035

Win probability by round —

RECONSTRUCTED POST-MATCH

Cyan = K27 · Magenta = Walczaki. Each point = that team's win % after the round ended. Hover for round score.

◈ Economy discipline is the single strongest in-game predictor — full-buy vs eco collapse shows as steep drops.

⬡ Reconstructed post-match from validated V4 demo data. Probability resets at 50–50 at the start of each half.

TEAMS

PLAYERS IN THIS MATCH

kashl1d xeedo X5G7V qw1nk1 fame olimp SaMey moonwalk sk1tt bajmi