Falcons vs MOUZ — CounterQuant

T3 BO3 CS2 2026-05-23

Falcons Winner

2 : 1

Falcons wins

MOUZ

CQ GESUS

Models →

No CQ-GESUS predictions available for this match.

MIRAGE · Per-Map Win Rates

Historical results — all recorded matches on each map

MIRAGE model →

Map	Falcons	vs	MOUZ	Edge
overpass	48% (11/23)		66% (31/47)	-18pp
inferno	48% (28/58)		62% (68/110)	-14pp
dust2	56% (45/81)		47% (28/60)	+9pp
mirage	49% (44/90)		56% (70/124)	-7pp
nuke	56% (50/90)		61% (66/108)	-5pp
ancient	56% (48/85)		60% (49/81)	-4pp
vertigo	50% (17/34)		53% (23/43)	-3pp
anubis	44% (17/39)	·	—

Win rates from all recorded CS2 results in the CQ database. Edge = team1 win rate − team2 win rate on this map. Large edges (>10pp) signal map specialists.

MIRAGE · Veto Forecast + Map Win Probabilities

BO3 ban/pick simulation · each team bans worst maps, picks best

MIRAGE model →

Predicted BO3 Veto Sequence

Falcons bans

overpass 48% WR

inferno 48% WR

MOUZ bans

dust2 47% WR

vertigo 53% WR

Falcons pick

ancient

48% — Falcons favored

Decider

mirage

53% MOUZ

Decider

anubis

MOUZ pick

nuke

52% — MOUZ favored

Per-Map Win Probability — If This Map Is Played

overpass

42%

58%

MOUZ

inferno

44%

56%

MOUZ

dust2

54%

46%

even

mirage

47%

53%

even

nuke

48%

52%

even

ancient

48%

52%

even

vertigo

49%

51%

even

Falcons on left · MOUZ on right · Win prob = each team's historical WR normalised head-to-head on that map · Veto simulates BO3: team bans 2 worst, picks best remaining

Side

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Falcons WIN
MVP Niko SUPPORT	53	39	18	70%	96.1	76.9%	1.34	9.9
kyousuke RIFLER	46	38	12	70%	80.0	70.8%	1.15	9.9
TeSeS RIFLER	40	39	15	80%	76.0	75.4%	1.09	9.8
m0NESY AWP	41	39	12	24%	75.8	69.2%	1.05	10.0
karrigan ENTRY	32	44	13	53%	50.7	60.0%	0.75	9.4
MOUZ
MVP torzsi AWP	44	37	12	36%	70.9	69.2%	1.09	9.9
xelex RIFLER	47	42	8	70%	81.1	63.1%	1.07	9.5
jL SUPPORT	38	42	9	63%	57.9	58.5%	0.85	9.7
Spinx RIFLER	32	42	11	63%	65.4	64.6%	0.84	9.8
xertioN RIFLER	36	51	10	44%	64.1	56.9%	0.76	9.8

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Falcons
NiKo	17	16	5	59%	93.8	71.4%	1.20	9.9
m0NESY	13	15	3	31%	67.3	66.7%	0.93	10.0
TeSeS	10	15	5	90%	78.8	71.4%	0.89	9.8
kyousuke	10	14	1	40%	46.9	57.1%	0.69	9.9
karrigan	7	17	4	57%	34.6	57.1%	0.47	9.4
MOUZ WIN
xelex	19	12	4	79%	95.4	81.0%	1.45	9.5
jL	18	10	2	67%	81.7	66.7%	1.31	9.7
xertioN	17	16	4	47%	83.0	71.4%	1.16	9.8
Spinx	11	9	5	73%	66.4	76.2%	1.08	9.8
torzsi	11	10	4	18%	53.9	81.0%	1.04	9.9

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Falcons WIN
NiKo	20	12	9	85%	106.7	73.9%	1.46	9.9
TeSeS	21	15	6	81%	100.3	78.3%	1.42	9.8
kyousuke	16	14	7	75%	85.6	82.6%	1.25	9.9
m0NESY	15	13	4	33%	81.4	73.9%	1.14	10.0
karrigan	15	14	2	40%	55.7	56.5%	0.90	9.4
MOUZ
torzsi	20	15	5	55%	91.3	69.6%	1.29	9.9
xelex	17	16	1	59%	83.6	52.2%	0.98	9.5
Spinx	11	20	4	55%	72.7	52.2%	0.64	9.8
xertioN	11	20	2	18%	53.1	47.8%	0.54	9.8
jL	8	17	5	50%	42.6	47.8%	0.48	9.7

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST	Rating	CQR
Falcons WIN
kyousuke	20	10	4	80%	106.9	71.4%	1.51	9.9
NiKo	16	11	4	63%	86.9	85.7%	1.36	9.9
m0NESY	13	11	5	8%	78.2	66.7%	1.08	10.0
TeSeS	9	9	4	67%	46.6	76.2%	0.93	9.8
karrigan	10	13	7	70%	61.3	66.7%	0.86	9.4
MOUZ
torzsi	13	12	3	23%	65.6	57.1%	0.93	9.9
Spinx	10	13	2	60%	56.5	66.7%	0.82	9.8
jL	12	15	2	67%	50.9	61.9%	0.80	9.7
xelex	11	14	3	73%	64.0	57.1%	0.80	9.5
xertioN	8	15	4	75%	57.3	52.4%	0.60	9.8

Teams

Players in this match

Niko kyousuke torzsi TeSeS xelex m0NESY jL Spinx xertioN karrigan